Module 33: The Relative Measuring Tape - Valuation Multiples

While Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) provides an absolute "Intrinsic Value," Valuation Multiples allow analysts to perform Relative Valuation. Multiples answer the immediate market question: "Is this stock cheap or expensive compared to its peers?"

1. Equity Multiples vs. Enterprise Value Multiples

Before calculating a ratio, you must ensure the "Numerator" and "Denominator" match.

  • Equity Multiples: Focus strictly on the value available to shareholders (after debt is serviced). Example: P/E Ratio (Price per Share / Earnings per Share).
  • Enterprise Value (EV) Multiples: Focus on the value of the entire enterprise (Equity + Debt - Cash). Example: EV/EBITDA. Because EBITDA represents profit before interest is paid to lenders, the numerator must be the Total Enterprise Value.
  • Rule: Never mix them. Calculating Price/EBITDA is a catastrophic rookie error.

2. The Big Three Multiples

  1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The standard price tag. Trailing P/E is based on the last 12 months (the fact); Forward P/E is based on analyst estimates (the expectation).
  2. EV/EBITDA: The "Acquirer's Multiple." The gold standard for comparing firms with varying debt loads because it ignores taxes and interest.
  3. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: Crucial for the Banking sector. A bank's value is essentially the value of its loan book.

3. Industry-Specific Multiples

In the US markets, specialized sectors require specialized rulers:

  • SaaS / Tech: Price-to-Sales (P/S). Because hyper-growth startups lack net income, revenue growth is the primary valuation metric.
  • Retail / E-Commerce: EV / Gross Merchandise Value (GMV).
  • Telecom: EV / ARPU (Average Revenue Per User).

Self-Assessment Quiz

  1. Why is calculating a "Price-to-EBITDA" multiple considered a fundamental analytical error?
  2. Why is the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio the preferred metric for valuing major US commercial banks?